Impact of rising memory prices on smartphone market, sales of major brands projected to decline next year

Kathmandu. Global smartphone sales are projected to decline by 2.1 percent in 2026. Counterpoint Research has estimated that global smartphone sales will decline in 2026 due to rising memory prices.

The rapid increase in the construction of data centers for artificial intelligence (AI) has led to an acute shortage of memory chips worldwide. Due to this, the price of memory is increasing. In addition, the price of other components is also increasing.

According to Counterpoint, sales of most smartphone brands are expected to decline. Sales of brands including Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi, Vivo, Oppo, Honor are expected to decline. See the figure:

According to Research Director MS Huang, this is having a major impact on the market for smartphones priced below US $ 200 (about 29,000 rupees). “The sub-$200 smartphone market is seeing a huge impact. Since the beginning of 2025, component prices have been increasing. The bill of materials (BOM) in this segment has increased by 20 to 30 percent. At the same time, the prices of mid- to high-end smartphones in the market have increased by 10 to 15 percent,” Huang said.

Counterpoint predicts that memory prices could increase by another 40 percent by the second quarter of 2026 (April-June). This could increase the BOM by another 8 to 15 percent.