Climate change and disaster reduction issues

Floods and landslides are not new disasters for Nepal. These natural disasters have long been part of the country’s natural hazard landscape. Historically, such disasters were caused by rare extreme climate events, occurring only once in a few years or decades. But today, monsoon and disasters have become almost synonymous.

What used to be an occasional disaster are now being faced regularly as annual crises. The increasing impact of these disasters is not only due to climate change and weather instability, but also reflects unscientific and unplanned development, poor implementation of policies and regulations, and neglect of disaster risk in planning and implementation.

While the incredible floods and landslides of recent years have sent a clear message of what is likely to happen in the coming days, Nepal’s development planning, policy reforms and infrastructure design are still based on outdated, irrelevant methodologies that are inadequate to address the risks of a changing climate, human intervention and rapidly changing land-use patterns.

Nepal is now at a point where the long past cannot guide the near future. Weather extremes, once considered the ‘exception’, have now become the new normal. Not only excessive rainfall, but now even normal rainfall is starting to have serious impacts on communities, infrastructure, agriculture, etc.

This year too, the same pattern of previous years is likely to continue or even increase. The Department of Hydrology and Meteorology has predicted that this year’s monsoon will start earlier than expected and receive more than average rainfall. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority has predicted that over two million people will be directly affected by this year’s monsoon.

We have only just experienced the historic rains that devastated central Nepal, including Kathmandu, damaged critical infrastructure, and caused untold human losses in the month of Ashwin last year (September 2024), and we are struggling to recover from it. Therefore, extreme weather events and the unimaginable losses they cause are a signal for us to take serious action.

According to various national-level studies, more than 80 percent of Nepal’s population is at risk of some kind of natural disaster. Along with population growth in big cities, unplanned development and the increase in the rate of disasters are certain to make both human and physical infrastructure even more vulnerable. Studies have shown that every year, disasters cost Nepal an economic loss equivalent to about 2 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).

This is a huge share for a country with a small economy like Nepal. The impact of climate-induced disasters (e.g., droughts, floods, landslides) on human settlements and communities is forcing population migration, which is further exacerbating regional imbalances and socio-economic inequalities.